America is on track to become a “net mortality society,” where deaths outnumber births. As births plummet to almost 25% below replacement, the United States faces a future with a shrinking population, and the consequences extend far beyond the American family. Nicholas Eberstadt argues that falling birth rates reflect a deeper cultural shift away from marriage, family, and the institutions that have long sustained prosperous societies, raising difficult questions about economic growth, immigration, Social Security, and America’s future. He examines the consequences of the men-without-work problem in the wake of the COVID pandemic, the role of AI in shaping immigrants’ job opportunities, and how socialism’s growing popularity in America affects the labor market. Combined with fertility rates collapsing across the developed world and loneliness reaching unprecedented levels, can America capitalize on our advantages in a way that China can’t? Or are we bound to the same fate as other countries like Poland or Japan? Can public policy reverse these trends, or is this ultimately a crisis of meaning and norms rather than economics? Ultimately, what happens when societies stop replacing themselves…
Nicholas Eberstadt holds the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), and is a senior adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research. He has written numerous books and monographs, including His many books and monographs include Men Without Work: Post-Pandemic Edition (2022); Russia’s Peacetime Demographic Crisis: Dimensions, Causes, Implications (2010). He has offered invited testimony before Congress on numerous occasions and has served as consultant or adviser for a variety of units in the US government. In 2020, he received the Irving Kristol Award, AEI’s highest honor.